Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 135.180985 156.646887 181.310453 211.944680 249.251460 293.564827 350.716305
2025-11-23 104.604087 130.182780 162.352713 206.447001 266.370333 346.552384 464.745219
2025-11-30 92.921284 122.124387 161.525298 219.980558 307.024168 436.180306 651.195935
2025-12-07 81.630033 111.747988 154.603925 222.224477 330.567426 505.711549 829.638920
2025-12-14 73.883147 104.701681 150.602147 227.044097 357.851586 586.761347 1055.192081
2025-12-21 66.649670 97.167985 144.371357 226.645297 375.648280 655.356508 1283.381145
2025-12-28 63.721799 95.693440 147.153779 241.337471 422.844434 791.554481 1714.059153
2026-01-04 60.540247 93.308436 147.941511 252.424406 465.609576 932.172135 2230.361557
2026-01-11 57.372200 90.496915 147.499525 260.973742 505.132107 1078.859276 2852.591001
2026-01-18 53.958050 86.836114 144.997691 264.959786 535.721261 1215.087492 3538.300327
2026-01-25 50.451754 82.615827 140.899131 264.932547 557.140134 1335.712586 4265.605459
2026-02-01 46.602378 77.390313 134.279802 258.494447 561.746747 1411.978272 4891.306455
2026-02-08 43.119793 72.630294 128.252270 252.940641 568.837490 1503.597525 5695.638359
2026-02-15 39.980661 68.227391 122.452609 247.032816 573.893601 1592.603667 6596.427019
2026-02-22 39.411898 68.628609 126.339355 264.155053 646.552455 1944.066136 9391.535286
2026-03-01 37.560057 66.354561 124.410284 267.007235 679.406381 2172.064948 11874.439979
2026-03-08 36.139767 64.796734 123.809496 273.067453 724.047602 2474.454933 15575.175729
2026-03-15 34.327477 62.284940 120.850612 272.567674 747.913264 2705.419616 19310.597379
2026-03-22 34.029074 62.843520 124.763260 291.062594 841.854910 3331.304102 29348.242313
2026-03-29 33.388733 62.621873 126.868532 305.061286 925.796485 3987.193428 43470.644954
2026-04-05 32.563066 61.926771 127.781917 315.879946 1002.542838 4683.719253 63625.055968
2026-04-12 31.448189 60.506186 126.797748 320.931041 1058.877077 5318.934483 89145.693950
2026-04-19 30.135682 58.544405 124.285111 320.896509 1094.495843 5858.744374 119512.327245